Under Beijing's Wing: China's Role in Advancing Iran's Ballistic Missile Arsenal

The 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) was presented as the definitive solution to Iran's nuclear threat. However, the agreement imposed extensive restrictions on uranium enrichment, centrifuge capacity, and stockpile levels while saying almost nothing about ballistic missiles—the very systems required to deliver a nuclear warhead to its target. The JCPOA placed no limits on the development, testing, production, or deployment of these weapons, leaving Iran's delivery capability completely unconstrained. For Iran, this distinction is critical. Decades of international sanctions have left Tehran with one of the weakest air forces in the region—an aging fleet incapable of penetrating the air defenses of Israel or any major Gulf state. Iran cannot reliably deliver a nuclear weapon by aircraft or by sea. The ballistic missile is the only component that gives the rest of its nuclear program strategic value. What makes this failure even more consequential is who has stepped in to exploit it. Over the past two years, China has emerged as the principal external supplier of critical technology, components, and expertise for Iran's ballistic missile program. This partnership, operating under Beijing's strategic wing, has accelerated the development and sophistication of Iran's arsenal, fundamentally altering the regional military balance and the threat posed by Iran's nuclear ambitions.