Fereidun Fesharaki Warns: Strait of Hormuz 'Near-Closure' Could Spike Oil to $150-$200 in Weeks

A leading energy analyst warns that a sustained 'near-closure' of the Strait of Hormuz could send oil prices rocketing to between $150 and $200 per barrel within a matter of weeks. Fereidun Fesharaki, Chairman Emeritus of consultancy FGE NexantECA, issued this stark forecast, highlighting the critical vulnerability of the world's most important oil chokepoint. Such a price shock would not be a mere market fluctuation but a direct trigger for severe global economic fallout, straining economies and reshaping energy security calculations overnight.

The warning centers on the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow passage through which about a fifth of the world's seaborne oil transits. Fesharaki's scenario hinges on a prolonged disruption—a 'near-closure'—rather than a complete blockade, suggesting that even heightened military tensions or significant operational interference could be enough to strangle global supply. His timeline of 'the next few weeks' underscores the potential for a rapid, disorderly price spiral if geopolitical risks in the region materialize into tangible supply constraints.

The implications extend far beyond trading desks. Prices at this level would immediately pressure consumer nations, reignite inflationary pressures globally, and force a brutal reassessment of strategic petroleum reserves. For oil-dependent industries and governments, Fesharaki's analysis serves as a high-stakes pressure test, outlining a plausible near-term crisis that could redefine energy markets and geopolitical alliances under extreme duress.