Goldman Asks: Is the 2022 Energy Shock Playbook Back? Solar Stocks Surge on Fossil Fuel Price Spike

A familiar, volatile trade is flashing back to life. Goldman Sachs analyst Adam Wijaya is asking clients if the market is rerunning the 2022 playbook, where spiking fossil fuel prices triggered a massive rally in renewable energy stocks. The catalyst is clear: a renewed surge in crude oil and European natural gas prices, coupled with the threat of coal switching, is putting intense pressure on energy economics and reviving the investment case for solar.

The numbers tell the story. SolarEdge (SEDG) is up a staggering 79% year-to-date, with Enphase Energy (ENPH) gaining 18%. This surge is broadly tracking the upward march of Brent crude and the European gas benchmark. The core logic of the trade remains intact: as traditional energy costs climb, the relative economics of solar and other renewables improve dramatically, forcing a reassessment of adoption rates, particularly in energy-strapped regions like the EU.

The question Wijaya poses—'do we start to see more renewables adoption in the EU given demand needs?'—signals a critical inflection point. This isn't just a short-term technical bounce; it's a fundamental pressure test on energy policy and capital allocation. The move suggests institutional money is once again positioning for a prolonged energy shock, betting that high fossil fuel prices will accelerate the inevitable pivot to alternatives, with solar companies at the forefront of that capital rotation.