Iran Enforces 15-Vessel Daily Cap on Strait of Hormuz Transit, Vetting by Revolutionary Guards

Iran has established a de facto chokehold on the world's most critical oil chokepoint, the Strait of Hormuz, imposing a strict daily limit of no more than 15 vessels for safe passage. This control is enforced through an unchanged approval system where every ship must be vetted and granted permission by the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC). The strait was closed again this week following Israeli attacks on Lebanon, demonstrating Tehran's willingness to weaponize the waterway in response to regional conflicts, despite a shaky US-Iran ceasefire.

The reality on the water is a stark departure from normal global trade flows. According to Lloyd's, last week saw the busiest transit period since the start of the war, with 72 passages—a figure that remains 90% below normal volumes. The vessels that do receive clearance are predominantly connected to Iran, with a limited number of Indian ships managing to pass only after direct diplomatic intervention by the Indian government. This selective access underscores that the IRGC's vetting is a powerful political and economic tool, not a neutral maritime procedure.

The ongoing restrictions signal sustained pressure on global energy markets and shipping lanes, with few indicators that a full reopening is imminent. The situation creates significant risk for any vessel not aligned with Iranian interests, forcing nations to engage in behind-the-scenes diplomacy for basic access. The Strait remains a volatile flashpoint where regional military actions can trigger immediate closures, leaving global supply chains hostage to Tehran's strategic calculations.