BofA's Blanch Warns: Post-Conflict Oil, Jet Fuel Flows Face Prolonged Risk

The global oil market faces a protracted period of instability and supply risk, even after the immediate conflict in Iran concludes. Francisco Blanch, head of commodities and derivatives research at BofA Securities, warns that restoring secure oil flows and ensuring the availability of critical jet fuel will be a complex, time-consuming challenge. The disruption is not merely a wartime issue but a post-war one, with infrastructure, logistics, and regional stability posing significant hurdles to a swift normalization of energy markets.

Blanch's analysis highlights jet fuel as a particular point of vulnerability. The aviation sector's recovery and global connectivity depend on reliable, high-volume fuel supplies, which remain under threat. The warning underscores that the conflict's end will not automatically flip a switch for energy security. The process of bringing oil production and transportation networks back online, securing shipping lanes, and rebuilding market confidence involves substantial uncertainty and could extend the period of elevated price volatility and supply anxiety.

This prolonged risk scenario places sustained pressure on airlines, shipping companies, and national economies reliant on stable energy imports. It signals that corporations and governments must prepare for an extended phase of contingency planning and heightened market scrutiny. The situation demands a strategic reassessment of supply chains and energy reserves, moving beyond the immediate crisis to address the deeper, structural vulnerabilities exposed in global energy flows.