Gunvor CEO Warns of 'Very Choppy' Oil Market for Months Amid Demand Lull, Middle East Turbulence

The world's largest physical oil trader is bracing for months of violent price swings. In a stark warning to the Financial Times, Gunvor Group's Chairman and CEO, Gary Pedersen, stated that seasonally lower demand ahead of the summer driving peak, combined with continued Middle East turbulence, will likely extend a period of extreme market volatility. 'Frankly, it could be very choppy,' Pedersen said, describing a 'more challenging, softer period' that requires careful navigation.

Pedersen's caution comes as he leads the trading giant following a major management buy-out in December 2025. His assessment points to a convergence of fundamental and geopolitical pressures that could destabilize prices for an extended duration. The warning carries significant weight given Gunvor's position at the epicenter of global physical oil flows, where its operational insights directly reflect underlying supply and demand tensions.

The firm's current market outlook is delivered against a backdrop of recent institutional scrutiny. Prior to its internal shake-up, Gunvor faced serious allegations from the U.S. Treasury Department, which accused it of being a 'Kremlin puppet' and blocked its attempt to acquire the international operations of the sanctioned Russian oil major Lukoil. This history adds a layer of geopolitical risk to its present market analysis, highlighting how state actions and regional conflicts remain potent drivers of price instability in an already fragile trading environment.