U.S. Gasoline Stocks Approach Record Lows as Import Flows Tighten, Morgan Stanley Warns

U.S. gasoline inventories are declining toward historic lows, raising fresh concerns about supply adequacy heading into peak demand periods, according to Morgan Stanley. The bank flags a sharp contraction in import flows as a key driver behind the tightening balance between supply and demand in the world's largest fuel consumer.

The decline in incoming shipments appears structural rather than seasonal, the analysis suggests. Reduced tanker arrivals reflect a combination of tightened availability in producing regions and shifted destination patterns globally. American refineries, already operating at elevated utilization rates, face diminishing ability to compensate through domestic production alone.

The implications extend across the supply chain. Sectors reliant on transportation fuels—aviation, logistics, agriculture—face renewed cost pressure if inventory draws accelerate. The development also complicates the Federal Reserve's energy-price calculations ahead of key policy decisions, adding a wildcard to the inflation outlook. Morgan Stanley's warning joins a growing chorus of energy-sector observers tracking the trajectory of U.S. petroleum balances.