OpenAI's $852 Billion Valuation Under Scrutiny as SoftBank Slashes Margin Loan to $6 Billion

SoftBank Group's abrupt decision to scale back a planned $10 billion margin loan to as little as $6 billion has exposed deepening lender unease over OpenAI's staggering $852 billion post-money valuation. The loan, backed by SoftBank's roughly 13% stake in the AI giant, faced resistance from banks and private-credit funds that balked at assigning reliable collateral value to unlisted shares in a company where secondary-market demand has already cooled. The development signals a potential inflection point for the world's most valuable AI startup, whose valuation momentum now faces its first serious test.

The loan reduction follows reports that OpenAI missed internal revenue and weekly-active-user targets earlier this year, raising questions about whether the company's growth trajectory can justify its premium pricing. Lenders grew particularly cautious as sellers in OpenAI's secondary market began outnumbering buyers, while rival Anthropic has reportedly drawn stronger investor interest. The combination of missed operational benchmarks and cooling secondary demand created a credibility gap that financing parties were unwilling to bridge at the original $10 billion scale.

While the margin loan remains SoftBank's balance-sheet exposure, the episode carries tangible risks for OpenAI's financing posture. The most immediate concern is valuation pressure: if lenders are reluctant to accept OpenAI shares as collateral at face value, future funding rounds could face heightened scrutiny or pricing pressure. The situation follows an earlier $40 billion bridge financing arrangement, suggesting SoftBank has already deployed significant capital to support its position. For a company whose business model depends on continued access to capital for compute infrastructure and talent, any erosion in valuation confidence could constrain strategic options just as the AI race intensifies.